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火灾情景行人疏散恐慌动力学模拟研究

Simulation of panic dynamics of pedestrian evacuation in fire situations

  • 摘要: 当前我国建筑火灾频发,为分析火灾疏散中人群心理状态对疏散的影响,本研究通过问卷调查确定火灾疏散中恐慌心理的影响因素,在Anylogic软件中,基于SIS(susceptible infected susceptible)经典传染病模型,细化人群状态,引入火灾影响因子,构建火灾情况下的恐慌动力学模型。结果表示火灾影响因子在疏散中占主导地位,作用于疏散的各个阶段,在火灾初期影响最大,其次引导因子对疏散的积极作用较为显著,恐慌情况下的疏散较无恐慌情况疏散效率降低了约27.03%,初始阶段会处于慌乱状态,向等待区域中部聚集,且越靠近房间中心,人群慌乱的情况越严重,持续时间越久。

     

    Abstract: For the current frequent building fires in China, in order to analyze the influence of population psychological state in fire evacuation on evacuation, this study was used to determine the influencing factors of panic psychology in fire evacuation through the questionnaire survey. In the Anylogic software, based on the SIS (susceptible infected susceptible) classic infectious disease model, refine the population state, introduce the fire influence factor, and construct the dynamic model of panic under fire condition. Results said fire impact factor dominated in the evacuation, in the evacuation of various stages, the biggest influence in the early fire, the second guide the positive effect of evacuation, evacuation panic situation than panic evacuation efficiency reduced by about 27.03%, the initial stage will be in the state of panic, to the middle of the waiting area, and the closer to the center of the room, the more serious the crowd panic, the longer the duration.

     

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